Thursday, August 13, 2009

Obama myth. Job Depression Does not entail an "economic recovery" This is common sense.

The amount of baloney pushed by our politicians and the media is infinate material for comedy. It would be funny if none of it was true.

The left has been the worst perpetrators.

We've heard that Cows are to blame for Global Warming. Haven't cows been farting since cows have been in existance? What about the Bison and the Buffalo?

Then Obama convinces us that Cap and Trade or "energy reform" is the solution to our trade deficit with Saudi Arabia, since that's the cause of our bad economy. I'm not putting words into his mouth, there's no way I can make this stuff up.

At a time of such great challenge for America, no single issue is as fundamental to our future as energy. America's dependence on oil is one of the most serious threats that our nation has faced....It puts the American people at the mercy of shifting gas prices, stifles innovation and sets back our ability to compete.

So drilling in Alaska wouldn't help?

Okay Obama's wording is a tad melodramatic. The other trouble is that Obama doesn't tie his statements with a bridge of logic or facts. Cap and Trade is a tax that's going to hamper profit margins for businesses and reduce consumer confidence with it's customers, just so government can profit. Both of these solutions are exactly what you should not do to stimulate the economy. Taxing us heavily is going to hurt the country's economy for everyone. This is the truth, I'm actually sugarcoating it.

What is the next line of baloney? Oh! The job depression economic recovery, otherwise known as the "jobless economic recovery".

This isn't possible since the US is a consumer based economy.

Consumer spending used to make up about 67% of all the economic activity in the U.S., but over the past few years, it's ratcheted up to around 72%.

This is a significant number. Much of it has to do with real estate and derivative trading but here, it's just like calling the sky "blue".

How many jobs did we lose since the subprime collapse?

According to MSNBC,
About 6.7 million jobs were lost during this downturn.

Before I get into it, we have to note that the US job creation compared to the population growth dropped from 78.45% (dot com boom) in the 90's to 19.57% between 2000-March 2009.

Let's not forget that we offshored, outsourced and sent money to places that would not keep the economy strong without the derivative market to begin with.

According to the BLS website:
Employment in professional and business services continued to trend
down in July (-38,000); the industry has shed 1.5 million jobs since
the start of the recession
. Within professional and business services,
employment in the temporary help industry edged down in July. While
temporary help has lost 844,000 jobs since the recession began, the
declines have lessened substantially over the past 3 months.

Transportation and warehousing lost 22,000 jobs in July. Since May,
the average monthly job loss was half the average monthly decline for
November through April (-17,000 versus -34,000)

Financial activities employment continued to trend down in July
(-13,000). The average monthly decline for this industry was 23,000
over the past 3 months compared with 46,000 per month from November
through April. Since the start of the recession, the financial acti-
vities industry has lost 501,000 jobs. Employment in information de-
clined by 16,000 in July,
including losses in publishing and telecom-

Health care employment increased by 20,000 in July, about in line
with the average monthly gain for the first half of this year but
down from an average monthly increase of 30,000 during 2008. Employ-
ment in lei-sure and hospitality has been little changed over the
past 3 months.

In July, the average workweek of production and nonsupervisory work-
ers on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 33.1 hours.
The manufacturing workweek increased by 0.3 hour to 39.8 hours. Fac-
tory overtime was unchanged at 2.9 hours. (See table B-2.)...

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for May was revised
from -322,000 to -303,000, and the change for June was revised from -
467,000 to -443,000.

THIS IS A SEVERE JOB DEPRESSION!!! We haven't lost this many jobs since the Great Depression.

Now, since people lose spending power when they lose their jobs; wouldn't it be safe to assume that they're not going to be very big consumers? Let's discuss this for a minute. If the economy is 72% consumer based, the job losses here will infact drop this consumer sentiment quite a bit? Sure people are going to take up sales, but it's likely to be the "already haves" vs. the "have nots".

Along with that missing consumer sentiment, didn't a record number of job losses stir a record number of foreclosures? The sudden drop in real estate prices caused many legitimate (non-ARM) borrowers to fall into foreclosure when their debt was greater than the value of their properties. When the demand for real estate drops due to affordability (people can't afford ARM loans without a job, sorry Obama); then real estate prices are going to keep dropping without the use of synthetic demand (credit default applied inventory for ARM loans used by speculators in the real estate market).

Wealth creation is never a guarentee. So apparently this "recovery" is the rebirth of the credit market which will probably hurt us as much as it helps. It should be the result of a solid trade relationship between our debtor country China, Japan and Saudi Arabia.

It's been almost a year since TARP was given to the corrupt CEO's to save their institutions with. They're not lending.

I'll bet anyone that next year, we're going to hear, "We didn't think it was this bad." Just like Bernanke unconciously dropped interest rates in 2005 to low levels to sell ARM loans to increase the returns for unsecured credit default investors.

It's just baloney. The media or our government is not telling us the truth.

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