Thursday, August 6, 2009

Global economy thoughts

I was speaking to somebody from the ATCA today about the direction various countries are going in.

It is quite wonderful to gain insight from CFA's outside of America with a more objective bias (economics is technically a science of money movement, objectivity is the fundamental of science). And everything discussed I agree with.

I do want to say that as an American, since we are a major consumer of world goods that most of the news is centered around us. With that being said, we have to hunt for objective, good information on world affairs. We are an ego-centric country and outside of sources like The Economist; we don't get much unbiased, straightforward information on situations that happen around the world.

Here are a few thoughts;

-China is not stable. They are growing, they have a stimulus. But they are too "dependant on exports" and their domestic consumption (for the large population) is "anemic". My own thoughts are with the Chinese government. They have imposed high tarriffs on imports to China from the U.S..

From my own knowledge of Asia (a prior resident) - Since China is learning from their asian neighbors on what moves to make in global trade, all I know is that protectionism and conservatism is expected. However they are new to the global markets and the government has been extreme even at times; it will be difficult to predict their policies (ie. taxation) or the lack thereof as a means of business and economic growth and longevity.

-Germany and Japan are both struggling.

We both agreed that a stable government is going to be key in the long term economic vitality. I like countries like Australia and India. India especially, they're innovative. Innovation is quite competative and very difficult. Many other countries are aiming for innovation. America has benefitted from inventing products that create value; or wealth creation. America has invented and marketed items such as the car, the airplane, electricity, computers and the internet; outside of the vast commodities this country is blessed with- made America the most prosperous country in the world. I'm not quite schooled in anything that asia innovated, except for the products that were already invented.

Yet India in recent times have released the Tata. They have been in pursuit of a very energy efficient small economic car that will help us with increasing gas prices. I'm not sure about the actual quality of the car, but this is quality marketing. I could see America receiving a comparative advantage from innovations such as this.

This for £1,300 . . .

Top speed 65mph
Engine rear-mounted 623cc, 33bhp multipoint fuel injection engine
Transmission continuous variable transmission
Fuel consumption 50mpg
Body sheet metal with crumple zones
Extras air conditioning and airbag optional. No radio, no power steering, one windscreen wiper

Meanwhile, America's current Congress and Administration seems disinterested in business and economic growth with their socializing policies. It's a shame.
We are still the main consumer of world goods and what happens to us will inadvertanly affect the world on so many levels.

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